COP29 and Emerging Buenos Aires-Mar-a-Lago Climate Denial Alliance

Judging from the timeline, it would seem Washington and Buenos Aires are fast becoming like-minded climate denial allies while perhaps even collaborating to scuttle meaningful environmental cooperation.  On November 12th, Argentine President Javier Milei reportedly communicated with Donald Trump, who called his South American counterpart “my favorite president.”  There’s a right-wing political likeness between the two, but also a psychological affinity since Milei, like Trump, is highly volatile and unpredictable.  On the 13th, just hours after speaking with Trump, Milei withdrew his country’s delegation from the annual United Nations climate conference (known as COP29) being held in Baku, which had begun a few days earlier.

Though Milei, a populist and self-styled “anarcho-capitalist,” has provided no reason for withdrawing the delegation, the politician denies climate science and has previously described the climate crisis as a “socialist lie.”  He has, moreover, sought to distance Argentina from the UN-supported 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda.  Flying to Mar-a-Lago, Milei met with Trump on November 14^th, the first head of state to visit the Republican president elect in person since the November 5^th election.

Ridiculously, the Argentine government says it doesn’t deny the existence of climate change, but discussion about the causes of warming is a “philosophical issue.”  While environmentalists are only just coming to terms with what a second Trump term might mean, Argentines have been reckoning with their government’s anti-climate agenda for almost a year.  Indeed, during his presidential campaign, Milei claimed that policies linking climate change with human activity were bogus, and went even further by arguing climate scientists were “lazy socialists.”

I had the opportunity to observe the stark effects of climate change when I flew to South America late last year.  Stopping in Buenos Aires in December — amid a suffocating Argentine summer — I spoke to experts in line with a book project dealing with Charles Darwin and his legacy in the context of climate change.  Just before my arrival, Milei had been elected but had not yet assumed power.

At the “Bernardino Rivadavia” Argentine Museum of Natural Sciences, I spoke to paleontologist Agustín Martinelli, who remarked he would be interested in exhibits dealing with Darwin’s legacy, though trying political and economic conditions were an obstacle.  When I asked if Milei might cut funding to scientific research and museums, Martinelli answered “of course we are afraid.”  Meanwhile, even as the city heats up outside, curators lack funds to maintain proper indoor temperatures, which in turn affects the museum’s holdings.

In a nearby café, I met Héctor Palma, a Darwin scholar and professor at the National University of San Martín.  Would Milei respect the legacy of Darwin, who made important scientific discoveries in Argentina?  “Milei isn’t interested in climate or the environment,” Palma remarked, and that meant scant concern for natural resources.  Buenos Aires, he added, has almost become a tropical city, with increasingly unpredictable weather ranging from torrential rain to drought (after assuming power, Milei sought to reverse environmental rules so as to promote economic growth, including relaxing guidelines concerning forest protection and glaciers, and the politician has even planned to privatize natural waterways).

A few days later, I found myself walking downtown as I came upon throngs of people gathered for Milei’s inauguration.  Unable to tolerate the heat, I ducked into a café, where I reflected on the futility of public celebration over a future climate denying president, given that Argentina is projected to experience a range of climate impacts ranging from extreme rain to droughts and temperature increases.  From Buenos Aires, I flew south to Patagonia to join Darwin200 initiative, a scientific expedition retracing the naturalist’s voyage aboard the Beagle.  In Puerto Madryn, I realized my itinerary had been foiled: though I had planned to visit a nature reserve called La Esperanza through the Natural Patagonia Foundation, a gigantic blaze near the lodge had made road travel impossible.

Improvising, I took a shorter day trip to Punta Tombo Nature Reserve, home to the largest colony of Magellanic Penguins in the world.  However, climate change has prompted a decline in the penguin population, and the animals face a variety of threats.  Winter in Patagonia has become warmer and less severe over time, my guide remarked, whereas summer has become longer and windier.  A few days later, I got word it was safe to travel to La Esperanza.  However, a tremendous storm had washed out the road, making it necessary for our jeep to slog through rivers of water.

As we neared the nature reserve, my heart sank: as far as the eye could see, landscape was charred and an acrid smell hung in the air.  At the lodge, I met Yaco Conchillo, a rugged young park ranger sporting a gaucho-style beret.  Patagonia displays a hostile climate including storms, rains, and fires, he remarked, adding that even though rain had decreased overall, storms had become more intense.

Conchillo provided harrowing details of the fire, which lapped close to the lodge.  The blaze, which he believes started by natural means, commenced at midday, and a few firemen arrived two hours later.  By mid-afternoon, however, the fire had become immense.  Fanned by winds, the fire eventually devastated half of La Esperanza.  Such fires may occur in summer, though Conchillo thinks blazes are now occurring more frequently.  Indeed, just one year earlier, another destructive fire occurred in the area, and the countryside had just started to recover when the new blaze erupted.

Touring the refuge on foot the next day, I observed skittish guanacos.  It seems the animals managed to escape the blaze by heading to the coast, Conchillo says.  However, less mobile wildlife such as lizards did not fare as well, and loss of bird nests and chicks was “incalculable.”  Back in Puerto Madryn, I spotted Darwin200 sailing vessel Oosterschelde anchored in the bay.  Weighed down by my suitcase, I made my way towards the ship, but not before speaking with Rolando González-José, a biologist specializing in physical anthropology, at a café located near the pier.

To be sure, not all fire should be considered negative, and indeed Darwin regarded fire as one of the most important discoveries made by humanity.  Now, however, researchers wonder whether we have entered a new “Pyrocene” era, and González-José was concerned about the increase in fires due to human activities and climate change.  Given such environmental pressures, what was the outlook likely to be under climate-denying Milei?

Employing a somewhat ironic euphemism, my companion said the president might try to “asphyxiate” funding to the sciences (Milei has since eliminated the Ministry of Science, and some say Argentine science now confronts “the worst adjustment in its history,” while earlier this year, dozens of Nobel Prize winners sent a letter to Milei protesting government restrictions on science funding, which has made researchers feel “as if they are on the verge of collapse” and led some to abandon the country).

Nearly a year later, having survived my long trip at sea and over land, and after observing the brutal ravages of climate change firsthand, I note the cruel irony of Milei’s climate denial finding common cause with the U.S.  As we approach Trump’s inauguration, I reflect on Milei’s assumption of power with an uneasy sense of déjà vu.  What will be the impact of two of the world’s leading countries turning their back on science and meaningful climate action?

Reportedly, Milei is thinking about withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, thus underscoring concerns about the influence of right-wing leaders on international climate accords.  The only other country to follow through on Milei’s threat was Trump, who took the U.S. out of the Paris agreement during his first term.  Fortunately, no other country followed Trump’s example.  In 2021, Biden rejoined the accord, though Trump has vowed to reverse course once again.  UN secretary general António Guterres has said that if the U.S. abandons the agreement for a second time, this might “cripple” the world’s ability to limit heating to below 2C above preindustrial levels.

There are fears that if Milei withdraws from the agreement, this could lead to a “domino effect,” which might encourage others to follow suit.  Negotiators, however, say there’s no sign of other countries leaving the agreement, and “any coordinated move” to undermine the accord would be “contained.”  Whatever the case, Argentine environmentalists view Milei’s theatrics as grotesque and nothing less than “an unhinged far-right policy that uses high-profile moments as a burlesque show for the pleasure of the global far-right movement.”  Given the high-level assault on the environment in Argentina, and most likely in the U.S. over the next few years, it is to be hoped other countries will resist such pressures and not succumb to “asphyxiating” science, let alone abandoning basic human reason.